TALK of a housing market downturn is growing, but Australia’s housing shortage means any price falls are more likely to affect specific areas than the broader market, according to Ray White Group Chief Economist Nerida Conisbee.
Ms Conisbee said softer auction clearance rates, weaker buyer confidence and uncertainty following the Federal Budget had fuelled speculation of a correction, but strong population growth, limited housing supply and constrained construction made a nationwide crash unlikely.
Instead, she said lower-priced suburbs that surged through expanded first home buyer incentives were most at risk if conditions weakened.
In Queensland, suburbs below the Federal Government’s home guarantee price thresholds recorded 7.9 per cent growth after the scheme expanded in late 2025, compared with 4.1 per cent above the threshold.
Ms Conisbee said Budget changes were expected to reduce investor demand in affordable markets, leaving first home buyers with small deposits particularly exposed if prices softened.
