WE’RE set to expect a wet spring, warmer than average nights and cooler days, with the Bureau of Meteorology expecting a high chance of above average rainfall over the coming months for the eastern side of the country.
Bureau climatologists are warning of an increasing risk of flooding over this time.
The Spring 2022 Climate and Water Outlook was released yesterday (August 25) and reflects several climate influences including a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event to the west, and the chance of a La Niña returning this spring increasing to around 70%.
Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Dr Lynette Bettio said, “where soils and catchments are wet, and streamflows are high, further rainfall this spring will increase the risk of flooding for eastern Australia.”
October is the official start to the wet season across northern Australia, however Dr Bettio said that first rains of the season are likely to be felt earlier than that for much of Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Further, Dr Bettio said a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is also likely, which pushes weather systems south, bringing wetter easterly winds to NSW and fewer cold fronts to western Tasmania.
In contrast, Dr Bettio said parts of Western Australia and western Tasmania are likely to experience below average rainfall this spring.
Almost all of Australia is likely to experience warmer than average nights, while cooler days are likely for large parts of the mainland except the tropical north.